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How the Baseline Forecast Is Generated

The baseline forecast is the model's prediction with no user overlays applied. It is generated entirely from historical data using statistical and machine-learning models.

The baseline process:

  1. Ingest historical data from your connected sources -- revenue, costs, headcount, and other Measures
  2. Select models -- for each ML-forecast target, candidate models are evaluated against its history and the best fit is chosen
  3. Train and project the Independent and Dependent targets across the forecast horizon defined by the Forecast Version
  4. Derive the configured lines -- targets set to Roll forward or Derived are then computed period by period from the ML outputs and your actuals: stocks accumulate their flows from the last actual balance, derived measures evaluate their formulas (including previous-period references)

Derived lines are stored exactly like every other forecast value, so they appear in charts, tables, comparisons, and exports with no special handling -- and like everything else, they refresh when a run completes.

The baseline is your neutral starting point -- what the model expects to happen if current trends continue. Overlays and Scenarios then express your business judgment on top of that baseline. The final forecast output for any Scenario is the baseline plus all overlay adjustments that scenario includes.